2011 – The year the Mountain Empire Real Estate Market Hit Bottom?

Posted on January 24, 2012 by Charlie Kentnor

This real estate downturn has been so long that it is now getting harder and harder to remember what the top was like! Is that good news? Not really, as we need to focus on what should be a prolonged climb back up to normalcy.
This blog may end up being in two or three pieces as I am having an issue with finding the block of time to do all I want. However, the first piece, a verbal summary of last year and how it compared to the previous three follows. A graph of the results and a video commentary will follow later this week.
Even though I was fortunate enough to enjoy a pretty good year relative to the market as a whole, it was still a year of lower income than in 2010. The total residential and land market as compiled from the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service was $8,730,620. $7,878,120 represented the housing market and $853,500 represented land and lot sales. What’s interesting is there were 30 homes sold in 2011 versus 26 homes in 2011, but the dollar value was close to the same. The real difference between the two years is the drop in land sales from 12 units to 11 units and a drop of almost $600,000 in sales volume. People were just not interested in land!
Quickly looking back 2 more years, we see that in 2009 the total market was $13,416,320 and in 2008 it was $16,853,758. So, last year’s sales volume was only 1/2 of 2008! Wow!
This year is looking much better as there seem to be more buyers in the market. Not too many of these people are writing contracts, but at least there are more folks looking. The news from Tucson and nationally continues to be better. I am quite optimistic that this year will be a positive one and we will have many more new neighbors and friends.

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Coming down the home stretch

Posted on December 19, 2011 by Charlie Kentnor

The final, I hope, bad year of the economic downturn is about to come to a close. The Mountain Empire real estate market is poised to take off in 2012. (I don’t think there is any other possibility!)
So, here’s what the 11 months of this year looked like: Total unit sales of 36 comprised of 26 homes and 10 lots. November sales units totaled just , but did manage to come in at $1,621,928 which is actually a very good month! For the 11 months, our total sales were $6,759,128. And, at the end of the month, there was a total of $1,000,000 in escrow to close. Assuming these close, the year will end at just above $8,000,000. That is about 25% of normal. Except for land, unit sales were not too bad reflecting lower prices per property.
In looking at my own activity this year, I will account for about 25% of the market. That’s actually very good. In addition to the sales success, I have made some nice new friends along the way. I’m looking forward to 2012 and making a lot more friends happy with their purchases in Sonoita, Elgin or Patagonia.

Happy Holidays!!
Charlie

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October 2011 market report

Posted on November 14, 2011 by Charlie Kentnor

We are now 10 months into the real estate market in the Mountain Empire of Sonoita, Elgin and Patagonia. This past month, October, was certainly nothing to brag about but I do feel we are at the bottom of the market. Prices should begin to firm up over the next couple of months and getting better as we go through 2012. Our current housing inventory represents almost 3 years and normal is about 1 year. So, a seller’s market is still far in the future.

The numbers are: We had 32 transactions in the 10 months of 2011; 22 of those were homes and 10 of those were lots. The total value for homes sold in the first 10 months was $5,930,628 and the total for land or lots was $828,500 for total market $6,759,128. This would look like we’re going to reach the end of this year at something Around $8 million in sales. That is unfortunately only about 20% of our normal volume in an average year.

As for the month of October, there were only three transactions and they were all homes. The value of the three homes was $850,287. Last October wasn’t any better in terms of volume as one home sold. However, that home sold for $852,000.

Currently there are a total of eight properties in escrow. If all the escrows close by the end of the year, the total value for those closings will be $2,489,248. That will put this market at just over $8 million for the year. I do believe that we are at the bottom of our market, or very close to it, so you buyers who are interested in purchasing in this area, (to move here or for potential long-term investment), I would suggest coming and taking a closer look. There currently still over 100 homes on the market and approximate 170 parcels of vacant land ranging from .4 acres to 320 Acres.

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The first of many, I hope

Posted on November 6, 2011 by Charlie Kentnor

I will be going into Tucson with two very wonderful clients tomorrow afternoon so they can sign their closing documents. If all goes according to plan, they will be the proud owners of a great home on Sims Lane in Sonoita on Thursday. I am extremely happy for them.

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Third Quarter 2011 Market Report

Posted on October 31, 2011 by Charlie Kentnor

Hi Folks!

This year is more than nine months down the road. I am not sure whether I want to rush to 12/31 or take it a bit slower in anticipation of some great change in the real estate market in the Mountain Empire.

There has been a bit more buyer interest in our market recently, both showing up in the area and on the internet. However, there is not a noticeable increase in contracts. That said, however, I wrote two offers this past weekend. One is in escrow and I have high hopes the other will be as well shortly. More noteworthy is the fact that one of the best deals in our market has gone under contract. It was listed at $700,000 with an owner carry option. It will be interesting to see what the sales price was.

As for the actual numbers these past 9 months, they are little changed from a year ago except for land sales. Home sales were just over $5,000,000 with 19 transactions versus $5,655,000 and 21 transactions last year. Land sales were dismal. There were only 10 sales. (In good markets, land sales tend to be 2X home sales in terms of numbers of transactions.) The dollar value was $828,500 versus $1,443,000 last year. {All statistics are from the Tucson Multiple Listing Service. There are always a few transactions that are “not listed”, but I do not have a reliable way to track those.}

This is a fine time to buy in this market. Interest rates are still very low from an historical standpoint. Most sellers are negotiable although they are reluctant to move their pricing down. If this market is on your radar screen for a real estate purchase, please call me to discuss your needs – or check the market through my website.

Regards.
Charlie,

Remember, for your real estate marketing and consulting needs, “Call Charlie”

www.SonoitaProperties.com

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Another month of softness in our market

Posted on September 12, 2011 by Charlie Kentnor

I keep trying. I really do. I’m doing all I can to attract buyers to this beautiful grassland in southern Arizona. The weather is great. We look out over a verdant pastureland this time of year to the mountains surrounding us. The monsoon has been good to us so far this season. So, why aren’t there more buyers here with there checkbooks out ready to snap up one of our homes or lots? You do know the answer? And it’s not because they don’t think they can get an outstanding deal and interest rates are as low as anyone can remember. It’s because we need good news. Every time we start moving in the direction of a better real estate climate, something clouds the economic horizon. As I write this, it is the stock market for sure. It just cannot make up its mind to get going back up. And those investors are looking for better jobs reports as well as some stability in the world financial markets. All of these are elusive at best at this time.
Well, here are the numbers from our market for the 8 months through August: 17 homes have sold (including 2 this month) and 8 land parcels have changed hands. The total of these transactions is just under $5,000,000. Last year, which we thought was pretty slow, 20 homes sold and 12 land parcels changed hands. The total value of those transactions was $6,300,000. Whether measured by units or dollars, our market is off 22% from last year.
I would really like to start writing about how our market has turned the corner. You can help me do this by sending qualified buyers in my direction. I will help them find the perfect property at an outstanding price!!

Great Bargain - Reduced to $325,000

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7 months and counting – How did we do in July 2011?

Posted on August 18, 2011 by Charlie Kentnor

It doesn’t appear that there is real strength and health in this Mountain Empire market just yet. I am still looking for that to appear during the next 5 months. I am personally having a good August and if that goes for the rest of the real estate community, we might have turned the corner. Good news for those folks buying right now. Maybe not so good news for those buyers still sitting on the fence.

For the seven months of this year, home sales are off 14% from the same period in 2011. Land sales are still in the doldrums and are off 45%! Overall, the market is off 20%.

The actual numbers are: 15 home sales (versus 19) totaling $3,963,135; 8 land sales (versus 9) totaling a paltry $693,000. For the month there were 4 home sales (and no land sales) totaling $842,000.

The grass is growing and the monsoon is gaining strength with more consistent storms in the past few days. If you have not visited this area in the summer, I suggest a nice road trip between no and the end of September. You will then understand why this may just be the best place to live on this planet! And, you might just find your dream home!!

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Market Report – January – June 2011

Posted on July 14, 2011 by Charlie Kentnor

The numbers for the first six months of 2011 seem to indicate the local market is still in a decline – or at the bottom. Year to year comparisons show a drop in total closing volume of 35%, a unit sales drop of 43% and a drop in the average price per square foot of 46%. All of the latter would seem to indicate we are at the bottom – or very close.
The actual numbers are as follows for 2011: 11 homes sold for an average price of $283,739 with an average time on market of 254 days. Eight lots sold for an average price of $86,625 after an average of 139 days on market. The total value of the transactions was $3,814,129. In 2010, the total was $5,854,798 and there were 28 transactions. (All numbers are based on data from the Tucson Multiple Listing Service. There are potentially a few other transactions by private sale or a listing in another MLS.)
Currently, there are 6 homes in escrow with a total asking price value of $1,595,000. This is a positive trend and another factor influencing my decision that we are at, or very near, the bottom of this downturn.
There is still a significant inventory of homes. As of a couple of days ago, there were 121 active listings. Based on the sales rate for the first six months, that number represents a 5.5 year supply! An excellent time to buy, for sure. This is an unprecedented buyer’s market. Please give me a call to discuss this in the perspective of your needs.

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Five months down the road to recovery

Posted on June 22, 2011 by Charlie Kentnor

I do believe our little market is now on track to perform better in the second half of this year. I say this for a couple of reasons: The first is based on the better news from the national front which also includes the results for May in the Tucson Multiple Listing Service. Home prices may still decline for a few months, but the number of transactions is improving slowly. Bear in mind, this recovery is going to be slow. We had a very steep drop, and although everyone would like a rapid recovery, that does not traditionally follow.
Thru may of this year, 7 homes and 5 lots have closed through the Tucson MLS. (There could be more transactions, but the TARMLS generally is representative of our market and is what I use for my statistics.) The total closed volume was $2,761,002 of which, $2,399,502 was homes.
The best news is what is in escrow and due to close. That number, representing 8 properties, is $2,159,400. That is quite significant; not just in dollar value, but also the number of transactions.
I look forward to the June and first 6 month statistics, which will continue to be positive!

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Another month into 2011

Posted on May 14, 2011 by Charlie Kentnor

Four months have passed in 2011 and we are still waiting for an uptick in real estate sales in the Mountain Empire. There have been many more buyers roaming around, but few have managed to put ink on the bottom line of a contract. Even with more showings, the number of closings is down from last year.
Here are the numbers: 9 transactions including 4 lots closed in the first third of this year. Last year there were 17 of which 4 were lots, same as this year. The gross sales volume was $2,065,129 this year and $3,792,400 last year. Neither year supports the twenty or so agents hanging their licenses with the various offices here. But, we keep hammering away as the market will change “soon”. More to the point, the Tucson, Phoenix and other markets that ultimately feed business here, have really started to see more transactions. Prices are down, but people are buying – which means someone sold something and is a candidate to buy here. My current feeling is the turnaround will begin in the second half of this year. Stay Tuned.
(Statistics were complied from the Tucson Multiple Listing Service and may not reflect all the transactions in the area.)

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First Quarter 2011 Market Statistics

Posted on April 11, 2011 by Charlie Kentnor

I will begin with the bad news first: Our market is still very soft. In fact, there are so few transactions it is hard to make any comparisons. There were a total of 6 transactions in the first quarter of this year versus 14 last year – and last year was not a winner either. Of those transactions, 2 were land sales and 4 were homes. One lot was in Patagonia and the other was in Elgin. Two homes sold in Sonoita and two sold in Patagonia. I’m happy to say I sold both the homes in
Sonoita. Total sales volume for the period was $1,720,628 versus $3,231,240 for 2010. That’s a big drop.
Now the good news: Our market does lag Tucson by a few months and that market continues to look better and better. For the past month, their dollar volume was up 19% from the previous year and up 33% in units sold! Both of those are very strong numbers.
We have seen more buyers looking at property in the Mountain Empire, but they still are not writing contracts. We expect this to change over the next few months and, barring any extraordinary economic news, the second half of the year should be very strong.
If you have property listed, I recommend continued patience. If you have property you might want to list, I would wait a few more months. In either case, please call us if you want to have a specific discussion about the market or your property.
{The statistics were compiled from the Tucson Multiple Listing Service database. There are possibly other transactions between private parties or not listed on this MLS.}

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What will be our first quarter 2011 results?

Posted on April 5, 2011 by Charlie Kentnor

It’s a few days early, but I am wondering how the first 3 months of this year compare with last year. Any guesses?

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