What will be our first quarter 2011 results?

It’s a few days early, but I am wondering how the first 3 months of this year compare with last year. Any guesses?

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January 2011-Still seeking confirmation

It will happen, won’t it? You know what I mean. The real estate market in Sonoita, Elgin and Patagonia will begin to act more normal. We’ve been waiting a long time, especially if you are trying to sell a parcel of land. But, I can honestly say it hasn’t happened yet.
Our housing inventory remains above 100 units when it should be less than 50. Interest in land parcels is excruciatingly soft. I personally have at least 4 listings of parcels that are great deals even in this market. They are all priced under what they would have sold for 5 or 6 years ago when the market was just starting to trend up at historically high growth rates.
What’s holding us back when we know that our feeder markets are improving? It is apparently the lack of sales in those markets that equate to the ability to purchase in the Mountain Empire. Our price range for most people is over $300,000 and less than $750,000. Our feeder markets are selling well at prices under our low end and thus those folks that would like to move here, but their home is in a higher price bracket, still cannot find a buyer. However, pent up demand and a better lending environment will soon prevail
So what happened this past month? Three homes sold, (I was involved in 2 of those sales), no land transferred and the total volume was $1,273,000. By comparison, last year there were 5 transactions which included one $60,000 land sale. The total volume was $1,023,900. (All statistics are from the Tucson Multiple Listing Service.) So, we had better volume in terms of dollars, but unit sales were down. As much as anything else, we need an improvement in unit sales to feel as if buyers are returning to our market.

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2010 – A year to forget

It’s over! Whoopee! Now, on to bigger and better things. That’s right, 2011 is going to be a great year for those of us real estate agents that survived the past two years.
Now for the numbers: In 2010 the Mountain Empire market, based on Tucson Multiple Listing Service data, declined by 38% in volume and 43% in unit sales (both homes and land). The number of homes sold was almost identical, 26 in 2010 and 25 in 2009. However, the volume in 2010 was $7.6M versus $9.7M in 2009.
The market decline that hurt us the most was in land sales where only 12 lots sold ($1,443,000) versus 32 lots ($4,746,976) in 2009. Adding in two commercial sales in 2009 and one in 2010, the total market was $9,210,800 versus $14,921,776 the previous year.
Keep in mind that our normal gross sales in this area is about $40,000,000. That said, we have a long way to come to get back to “normal”.

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Market statistics -11 months 2010

this year is definitely proving to be worse than last. Who would have thought? But, with just over two weeks to go, it is doubtful we will even come near 2009 which was an off year for sure.
Here we go: Home sales this year were $6,934,800 (24) versus $9,684,800 (25) for 2009. The number of transactions was virtual the same, but the volume was off by 28%. This is a validation that most of the buyers were bargain hunters. And, the median price of a home was $252,000 versus $300,000 in 2009.
The major difference in the two years shows up in lot sales. Twelve transactions totaling $1,443,000 closed in 2010 whereas 29 transactions closed in 2009 totaling $3,416,500.
There was one commercial transaction this year and two last year.
The total market, as reported through the Tucson Multiple Listing Service was $8,557,800 this year versus $13,591,300 last year a drop of 37%!!
I have maintained for a while that we are at the bottom of our market. I still believe that. It is an excellent time to buy! Please contact me with your needs and questions.

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Is your home on the market? Are you thinking of selling?

Is your home on the market? Are you thinking of selling? Then you need to look at the following article. There are some things you can do to make your home more attractive when people show up. Also, there are things you can do to get attention on the internet where 90% of the buyers go first!

Just click on this link or scan the QR code to see the article.

http://goo.gl/gM5Gw

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Why Keller Williams is my partner

Check out this quick video. When you do, you will understand why Keller Williams is the best real estate business model in the country. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iT9zzA0biic

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October 2010 Market Statistics

I sincerely hope the result for October signals the bottom of the market: ONE closed transaction in the Tucson Multiple Listing Service for a home in Tunnel Springs. I know of one other home sale that was in the MLS as a bank owned property, but went in escrow after coming off the service. So, two known transactions!

Last year in October there were 11 transactions: One commercial building in Patagonia; 4 homes; and 6 lots which aggregated to $3,255,000. That’s not so bad.

The better picture is there are several transactions in escrow at the moment. They total $1,088,400. Sounds as if November won’t be so bad – if they all close in that month.

The following is a link to all of the TAR/MLS statistics for that market. The Tucson market is showing much more stability and I’m trusting that strength will flow into the Mountain Empire shortly.

http://www.tucsonrealtors.org/tar-v2/statsoct10.pdf

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Third Quarter 2010 real estate statistics

The September numbers are out for the Tucson Multiple Listing Service. They continue to reflect an improving health in the marketplace, albeit at the expense of decreased average home price. That is merely a reflection of the number of distressed sales taking place. Unfortunately, they will be with us for some time to come. However, the good news is buyers are back so if you want to sell, and price your property correctly, a buyer should be there.

Not all of this is entirely the case for the Mountain Empire market. We always lag behind Tucson, both coming and going, and this time is no different. However, I really believe it is safe to say that we are at a market bottom. Our prices will continue to be depressed for some time to come because we have way too much on the market – whether it be homes or land. However, we should begin to see an increase in transactions as the year closes out.

Here are the numbers: Total sales volume, homes and land as reported by the Tucson Multiple Listing Service, for the first 9 months – $7,098, 300 (2010) vs. $10,139,333 (2009). Average home price and number of transactions for homes only – $269,300 (2010, 22) versus $366524 (2009, 21). Land sales appear to be off about 50% from 2009.

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Should you buy a home now?

This is a good commentary on a recent Time Magazine article. I believe it is “right on”.
Bring on the buyers!

http://j.mp/9wOZ9E

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First half 2010 Mountain Empire real estate results

Well, it’s not over yet. Compared to the first six months of 2009, we are still in a real estate recession in the Sonoita, Elgin and Patagonia markets. I do, however, believe that the second half of 2010 will show improvement and 2011 will be a year that might end up being clasified as close to “normal”

Here are the numbers: This year we have sold 19 homes valued at $4,595,300 and 9 lots valued at $1,259,500 for a total market of $5,854,800. The lots averaged $139,944.  That high number was influenced by some larger (more than 5 acres) parcel transactions. Average time on market was 270 days and the average price per acre was $9,351. The homes averaged $143 per sq. ft. and were on the market for 127 days. — In 2009, 37 homes sold for a total volume of $9,045,173. Land sales totaled $3,104,807 for 14 parcels. The total volume was $12,149,980 or almost twice what it is this year!!

My advice to buyers and sellers at this time is: Selling, either price very competitively if you have to sell or wait a year or two for the inventory to drop and prices to rise. Buying, don’t wait too much longer or the good deals will be gone along with the better inventory.

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New Short Sale Considerations

The attached link will bring up a very good presentation from NAR on a new short sale program. It would appear the government is trying to reduce the time and uncertainty involved in this process. Although no panacea and not without some kinks, it appears to be a step in the right direction towards getting these difficult transactions done in a timely fashion. We will see.

http://blog.aaronline.com/2010/04/new-short-sale-rules-kick-in-on-monday/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AARBlog+%28Blog.AAROnline.com%29

Charlie

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